Environmental variation and population responses to global change

Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human‐induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long‐term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.     

Phylogenetic eigenvectors and nonstationarity in the evolution of theropod dinosaur skulls

Despite the long‐standing interest in nonstationarity of both phenotypic evolution and diversification rates, only recently have methods been developed to study this property. Here, we propose a methodological expansion of the phylogenetic signal‐representation (PSR) curve based on phylogenetic eigenvectors to test for nonstationarity. The PSR curve is built by plotting the coefficients of determination R² from phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) models increasing the number of phylogenetic eigenvectors against the accumulated eigenvalues. The PSR curve is linear under a stationary model of trait evolution (i.e. the Brownian motion model). Here we describe the distribution of shifts in the models R² and used a randomization procedure to compare observed and simulated shifts along the PSR curve, which allowed detecting nonstationarity in trait evolution. As an applied example, we show that the main evolutionary pattern of variation in the theropod dinosaur skull was nonstationary, with a significant shift in evolutionary rates in derived oviraptorosaurs, an aberrant group of mostly toothless, crested, birdlike theropods. This result is also supported by a recently proposed Bayesian‐based method (AUTEUR). A significant deviation between Ceratosaurus and Limusaurus terminal branches was also detected. We purport that our new approach is a valuable tool for evolutionary biologists, owing to its simplicity, flexibility and comprehensiveness.     

A long downstream probe-based platform for multiplex target capture

A simple and rapid detection platform was established for multiplex target capture through generating single-strand long downstream probe (ssLDP), which was integrated with the ligase detection reaction (LDR) method for the purpose of multiplicity and high specificity. To increase sensitivity, the ladder-like polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplicons were generated by using universal primers that complement ligated products. Each of the amplicons contained a stuffer sequence with a defined yet variable length. Thus, the length of the amplicon is an index of the specific suppressor, allowing its identification via electrophoresis. The multiplexed diagnostic platform was optimized using standard plasmids and validated by using potato virus suppressors as a detection model. This technique can detect down to 1.2 × 10³ copies for single or two mixed target plasmids. When compared with microarray results, the electrophoresis showed 98.73–100% concordance rates for the seven suppressors in the 79 field samples. This strategy could be applied to detect a large number of targets in field and clinical surveillance.     

Congruent phylogenetic and fossil signatures of mammalian diversification dynamics driven by Tertiary abiotic change

Computational methods for estimating diversification rates from extant species phylogenetic trees have become abundant in evolutionary research. However, little evidence exists about how their outcome compares to a complementary and direct source of information: the fossil record. Furthermore, there is virtually no direct test for the congruence of evolutionary rates based on these two sources. This task is only achievable in clades with both a well‐known fossil record and a complete phylogenetic tree. Here, we compare the evolutionary rates of ruminant mammals as estimated from their vast paleontological record—over 1200 species spanning 50 myr—and their living‐species phylogeny. Significantly, our results revealed that the ruminant's fossil record and phylogeny reflect congruent evolutionary processes. The concordance is especially strong for the last 25 myr, when living groups became a dominant part of ruminant diversity. We found empirical support for previous hypotheses based on simulations and neontological data: The pattern captured by the tree depends on how clade specific the processes are and which clades are involved. Also, we report fossil evidence for a postradiation speciation slowdown coupled with constant, moderate extinction in the Miocene. The recent deceleration in phylogenetic rates is connected to rapid extinction triggered by recent climatic fluctuations.     

Factors driving spatial and temporal variation in production and production / biomass ratio of stream‐resident brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Cantabrian streams

1. The objective was to identify the factors driving spatial and temporal variation in annual production (P_A) and turnover (production/biomass) ratio (P/B_A) of resident brown trout Salmo trutta in tributaries of the Rio Esva (Cantabrian Mountains, Asturias, north‐western Spain). We examined annual production (total production of all age‐classes over a year) (P_A) and turnover (P/B_A) ratios, in relation to year‐class production (production over the entire life time of a year‐class) (P_T) and turnover (P/B_T) ratio, over 14 years at a total of 12 sites along the length of four contrasting tributaries. In addition, we explored whether the importance of recruitment and site depth for spatial and temporal variations in year‐class production (P_T), elucidated in previous studies, extends to annual production. 2. Large spatial (among sites) and temporal (among years) variation in annual production (range 1.9–40.3 g m^?2 per year) and P/B_A ratio (range 0.76–2.4 per year) typified these populations, values reported here including all the variation reported globally for salmonids streams inhabited by one or several species. 3. Despite substantial differences among streams and sites in all production attributes, when all data were pooled, annual (P_A) and year‐class production (P_T) and annual (P/B_A) and year‐class P/B_T ratios were tightly linked. Annual (P_A) and year‐class production (P_T) were similar but not identical, i.e. P_T = 0.94 P_A, whereas the P/B_T ratios were 4 + P/B_A ratios. 4. Recruitment (Rc) and mean annual density (N_A) were major density‐dependent drivers of production and their relationships were described by simple mathematical models. While year‐class production (P_T) was determined (R² = 70.1%) by recruitment (Rc), annual production (P_A) was determined (R² = 60.3%) by mean annual density (N_A). In turn, variation in recruitment explained R² = 55.2% of variation in year‐class P/B_T ratios, the latter attaining an asymptote at P/B_T = 6 at progressively higher levels of recruitment. Similarly, variations in mean annual density (N_A) explained R² = 52.1% of variation in annual P/B_A, the latter reaching an asymptote at P/B_A = 2.1. This explained why P/B_T is equal to P/B_A plus the number of year‐classes at high but not at low densities. 5. Site depth was a major determinant of spatial (among sites) variation in production attributes. All these attributes described two‐phase trajectories with site depth, reaching a maximum at sites of intermediate depth and declining at shallower and deeper sites. As a consequence, at sites where recruitment and mean annual density reached minimum or maximum values, annual (P_A) and year‐class production (P_T) and annual (P/B_A) and year‐class P/B_T ratios also reached minimum and maximum values.     

Human deciduous mandibular molar incremental enamel development

Quantitative studies of incremental markings retained within human enamel have reconstructed the duration and rate (crown and cusp formation times, initiation and completion, daily enamel secretion rates) of permanent tooth development. This approach has provided one way of estimating human age‐at‐death, and facilitated comparative dental studies of primate evolution. Similar applications from deciduous enamel are inhibited because developmental reconstructions from incremental markings for these teeth are less frequently reported in the literature. This study quantified the duration and rate of enamel development for mesial (protoconid, metaconid) and distal cusps (hypoconid, entoconid) for first (dm1) and second (dm2) deciduous mandibular molars from an archaeological sample of modern human juveniles. Crown formation time can be calculated from the dm1 protoconid because growth initiates and completes in this cusp, and from the dm2 protoconid combined with the final period of hypoconid growth. The dm1 postnatal crown formation time included the time taken for the tubercle of Zuckerkandl to develop, and differed slightly compared to radiographic methods. The majority of dm1 protoconid cuspal (occlusal region) enamel formed before birth. The dm2 entoconid enamel formed mainly after birth. Birth reduced daily enamel secretion rates, changed the visibility of incremental markings, and disrupted enamel growth for 3 to 8 days. Findings presented here can contribute to age‐at‐death estimates for human infants aged 13‐postnatal months or less, and should facilitate comparisons of primate deciduous incremental enamel development in an evolutionary context. Regression equations are included so that cuspal formation time can be estimated from enamel thickness. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2011. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Evaluating the population‐level impact of an invasive species,Ring‐necked Parakeet Psittacula krameri,on native avifauna

The introduction of exotic species to ecosystems can have severe consequences for populations of native organisms, but logistical limitations and shortage of historical data often hinder attempts to quantify the ecological implications of such relationships. The establishment and rapid expansion of Ring‐necked Parakeets Psittacula krameri in England therefore presents a rare opportunity to apply novel analytical methods to existing extensive national bird monitoring data from the UK Breeding Bird Survey for an invasive species. A previous study from Belgium suggests that Ring‐necked Parakeets have the potential to reduce the abundance of Eurasian Nuthatch Sitta europaea through competition for nesting cavities. Our analysis provides no evidence for a significant impact through competition on Nuthatch populations or those of any other cavity‐nesting species within the Parakeet’s current range in the UK. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that competitive exclusion could be occurring at a minority of sites at which availability of nest cavities is limiting. This may yet have significant implications for future conflict if Parakeets continue to increase in numbers and range.     

Sex-specific growth rates in zebra finch nestlings: a possible mechanism for sex ratio adjustment

Wild and captive zebra finches (Taenopygia guttata), like severalother species, produce a male-biased sex ratio at fledging whenfood is scarce. This is due to primary sex-ratio adjustmentand female-biased nestling mortality. Given that young femalesfledging at low body masses have been shown to have low fecundityas adults, lower returns to parents from producing female offspringin conditions of restricted food has been raised as a functionalexplanation (Trivers and Willard's hypothesis of adaptive sexualinvestment; 1973). However, an alternative, mechanistic hypothesisis that under restricted conditions female chicks are more costlyto produce. In consequence, lower returns to parents under theseconditions would happen earlier in the life of female offspringrather than later. To test this hypothesis, I hand-reared chickson a food gradient. In the absence of parent-offspring and sib-sibinteractions, final body mass and growth rates for females werelower in conditions of restricted food. For males, final bodymass and growth rates did not differ with food condition. Lowfemale growth rates in food-restricted conditions might be onepotential mechanism causing female-biased mortality in birds.More importantly, this result is the strongest evidence yetof female offspring experiencing higher marginal fitness benefitsfrom additional food than males and it has implications forprimary and secondary sex-ratio adjustment. Also, as this mechanismhas been shown in the absence of parent-offspring interactions,significant questions can now be raised as to how parental andoffspring behavior interact in their effects on secondary sex-ratioadjustment.